Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Why is Sarah Palin Not Going to New Hampshire?

 This is a fairly interesting question raised from the fact that in her upcoming book tour the former Alaska Governor has decided to skip the Granite State. Of course, New Hampshire is home to the first primaries in the nation, just after the Iowa caucuses.

The Boston Globe is asking that question after finding her itinerary for her tour.

“The longer you stay away, the more conspicuous it gets," said Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party. “Part of what baffles me is she’s been doing political events in other states. She’s gone to Iowa, and she’s spoken at party committee events in Oklahoma, Florida, and Oregon. It’s not like she’s got a blanket prohibition on these sorts of things."

The article continues to say that Palin has not visited the state in over two years and seems to have no plans to arrive there soon. As a matter of fact, despite the fact that she endorsed successful Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte, Palin did not campaign in the state for her.

“It’s wide open right now,’’ said Dave Carney, a longtime GOP operative from New Hampshire who was the White House political director for President George H.W. Bush. “If she invested the time and the resources in New Hampshire, she has a message that would sell quite well.’’

Furthermore, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the state, in part thanks to high name recognition. In order for Palin to win the Republican nomination in 2012 it is more than conceivable to believe that she would want to win in this New England state.

Mr. K has written in the past that he believes that Governor Palin is not running in the 2012 cycle. I'm not sure at this point, but it does appear conceivable.

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1 comment:

  1. Lots of reasons for Palin to avoid NH. Romney. NH Repubs are economic conservatives and tend to be social moderates who may find Palin's more statist views of the roll of government in social and family life objectionable. NH has an open primary system with about a third of the electorate registered as independents. The independent voter largely chooses to vote in the most contested primary and Palin's negatives are high among NH independents. During the senatorial primary, Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte was followed by a dip in Ayotte's poll numbers. NH conservatism is Burkean rather than reactionary.