Thursday, September 23, 2010

New Poll: Gillibrand Lead Down to 1 Point

Can you say "unbelievable upset in the making?"  According to a new poll by Survey USA, the Senate race in New York between incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand and Republican challenger Joe DioGuardi may be just that.  The poll states that DioGuardi is trailing Gillibrand by a single point, 45-44%.

Survey USA states
New York voters will, unusually, elect 2 United States Senators in 2010. In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham  Clinton's  term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.
Considering that New York is not only a Democratic stronghold but also was not even considered in danger of flipping, this election could make massive waves.
The new poll also comes on the heals of a new NY gubernatorial Quinnipiac poll that states Republican Carl Paladino is only 6 points behind heavy favorite Democrat Andrew Cuomo.

USA Survey also polled voters for the Paladino/Cuomo race, finding that Cuomo is up by 9%:

In an election for New York Governor today, 09/22/10, 1 week after the Primary and 6 weeks until the General Election, Democrat Andrew Cuomo defeats Republican Carl Paladino 49% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Gannett, including WGRZ-TV in Buffalo, The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, and the Journal News in White Plains.

Lower-income voters account for all of Cuomo's lead. The contest is effectively even among middle-income and upper-income voters. Cuomo leads 2:1 in New York City. Paladino leads 5:3 in Western NY. The candidates are effectively even in the NYC suburbs and Upstate. Consistent with SurveyUSA polling in other statewide races: men in 2010 are voting Republican, women in 2010 are voting Democrat; there is a 34-point gender gap for Governor.
These elections could be huge.

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