Thursday, April 25, 2013

NFL Draft: Who is More Accurate- Kiper or McShay?

Bleacher Report tackled this subject in 2010. Considering that Mel Kiper constantly mocks his fellow expert, I was very pleased to see that Todd McShay was more accurate... slightly.
Kiper doesn't look very pleased... McShay seems pretty startled
From Bleacher Report:
For all 32 picks, Kiper was off by an average of 5.7 slots. He also left Devin McCourty (#27) off the board in addition to the three players above. For the 17 picks where he differed from McShay, Kiper missed by an average of 7.0 picks, with Jimmy Clausen to the Raiders (who passed on him twice) his biggest mistake (#8 vs #48, McShay had him going #30 to the Vikings who also passed on him twice at #30 and at #34).

Aside from Clausen, Kiper also missed on Linval Joseph (#17), but was within 10 slots for the other 15 individual picks. Kiper was spot on for Dan Williams and Jerry Hughes and within three for five other individual picks.

By comparison, McShay was off by 5.2 slots on average for all 32 picks and missed by 6.1 slots when he differed from Kiper. Of those 17 picks, 3 were exact (Jason Paul-Pierre, Jermain Gresham and Demaryius Thomas) and 6 were within 3 slots. More impressive, on picks that were unaffected by trades and less likely to be disturbed by the noise of all of the transactions, McShay only missed by 3.5 slots to Kiper's 4.8 slots.

McShay's biggest gaffes were Clausen and Joseph (each missed by 18 picks) as well as Williams, (missed by 17 picks), whom Kiper correctly pegged to go the Cardinals at #26. McShay also left Tim Tebow (#25, Kiper had him at #30) and Sean Weatherspoon (#19, Kiper had him at #15) out of his final mock draft.

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