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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Why Romney Will Win The Popular Vote: A Statistical Analysis

Whether or not Mitt Romney will win the general election is up in the air. It all comes down to a few key states and, possibly, just a few thousand voters. One thing is being predicted far and wide, however: Mr. Romney will win the popular vote.

But even though political pundits like to take guesses and say what their gut is telling them, there's good statistical data to back up these predictions.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the popular vote with a total of 69,456,897 votes. John McCain received a total of 59,934,814. In case you cannot instantly do complex math in your head, Obama won 7.2% more total votes than McCain (52.9% versus 45.7%).
Barack Obama
Compare that with a poll that Rasmussen released in early November of 2008. According to the poll, 33.8% percent of people saw themselves as Republicans, 41.4% as Democrats, and 24.7% as non-affiliated. The difference was Democrats with a plus 7.6% advantage.

Obama wins by 7.2%, 7.6% of Americans see themselves as more of a Democrat than a Republican. Does the trend hold?

Well, in November of 2010, Republicans made huge gains in the House and some in the Senate. According to Rasmussen, in November of 2010, 36.0% of Americans saw themselves as Republicans and 34.7% as Democrats. That's a 1.3% advantage for Republicans.
Mitt Romney
But you are probably wondering what the current party affiliation is. Well, if you support Mr. Romney, I have good news. According to a Rasmussen poll released on October 31, 39.1% of Americans see themselves as Republicans, 33.3% as Democrats, and 27.5% as unaffiliated.

Does that mean that Romney will win by almost 6%? Probably not. Does that show that it is extremely likely that Mr. Romney will win the popular vote? Yes.

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