Monday, November 05, 2012

Statistical Analysis: Cuyahoga Early Vote Numbers Show Romney Cutting Obama Lead in ENTIRE STATE by 26%

Down 16% overall, down from 54,340 in 2008 to 45,337 this year-- down 9,007 or 16%. And most of the decline came from Democratic voters.

The numbers show a huge increase in GOP voters here:

Democrats: 127,741 53.36% or 89% of 2008
Republicans: 47,091 19.67% or 138% of 2008
Other: 64,544 26.96 or 78% of 2008
Total: 239,376 or 84% of 2008

Compare this with the 2008 results:

Obama: 458,422 69.05%
McCain:  199,880 30.11%
Total difference: 258,242

If GOP voting is up 38% in just the early voting and the Republicans are better prepared for election day, they could narrow the gap.

Let's assume that the early voting numbers are directly proportional to the overall vote count. If the independents flip 50/50 and the Democrats and Republicans keep their partisans, it leads to this result:

Obama: 404,202 66.74%
Romney: 200,768 33.15%
Difference: 203,434

This six point shift would represent about a net 44,812 vote decline for the President compared to 2008 (assuming the voting totals are down 8%, or about the level of people that left the county since the last election).

Furthermore, if the GOP increases their turnout 10% over the Democrats, the numbers get a little better:

Obama:  391,726, 64.68%
Romney: 213,911 35.32 %
Difference: 187,815

Assuming the same 8% drop as before, this would represent a massive 70,427 swing. Considering Obama won the state by 262,224, this would be 25.86 of his entire margin last time. Cuyahoga was about 12% of the electorate in 2008 and would hand Romney a huge step toward winning the rest of the state.

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  1. These numbers don't jive with the end results posted at

    According to that site's reporting, the "Other" received 3,281 votes in Cuyahuga county this year. Above it's listed as having more than Romney.

    Nobody's numbers appear to reconcile.