Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Romney's Depressing Electoral Hopes

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Barack Obama would win a second term.

After carefully analyzing the polling data from several pivotal swing states, President Obama currently controls 281 of the 538 available votes in the electoral college, or eleven more then he needs to clinch victory on November sixth, Mitt Romney controls 206 of the remaining votes, which leaves 51 toss up.

And the news isn't great out of those 51 "toss up" votes either, because Obama leads all three of those battleground states (Colorado, Florida and Virginia) by three point margins in the latest polls. Meaning, President Obama only has to carry one of those in addition to his current lead and the election is over...

While on the flip side, Mitt Romney has to not only overcome a deficit in all three of those states, but he somehow has to flip Ohio from a five and a half point Obama lead to a small Romney one in just thirty-five days. In a word, the presidential election as stands can only be characterized as depressing from a hard core Romney backer since the summer of 2011.

I am hopeful the Romney team can turn around the campaign with four solid debate performances and a heavy stream of attacks on Obama's economic and foreign policy record, however, I worry that time is running out too quickly for any difference to be made in the electoral college.

I thank the Lord I'm not a drinking man, because if I was... I'd be drowning my sorrows in Sam Adams.




  2. Even if the polls are trending Democratic, it doesn't help Romney's situation when he has to win essentially the four states I mentioned or his hopes are done..... I'm hopeful he can pull it off, but it's going to take more then leveling the numbers in polls - he needs to take this fight to the heart of factory workers in Ohio, ranchers in Colorado, Veterans in Virginia and unemployed workers in Florida that he best understands our economy, and the times we live in... and how to turn things around. Not a small task with five weeks to go.

  3. I said when the primaries started, if Romney is the nominee - Obama wins. I stand by that.