Friday, October 26, 2012
Ohio: Obama 48, Romney 46 Heading into Final Stretch
With the Presidential election increasingly gridlocked between Democratic incumbent Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, splitting the electoral college 281-257 for Obama with no toss-ups in Real Clear Politics latest analysis, it appears that for the second time in three national races it will all come down to Ohio.
According to recent polling conducted in the buckeye state, Obama leads Romney by an average of two points, or 48-46%, which is well within the margin of error. And when you consider four of the last eight polls have the candidates tied, or leading by a point or less, the race is tightening daily in this battleground.
This should come as no surprise, as both candidates have spent countless hours and monies in Ohio in an attempt to secure their 18 electoral votes on November 6th, but the modest unemployment rate of 7.2% places the Obama campaign on better footing then in other swing states with dramatically worse numbers, leaving the Romney team with more work to be done convincing voters to pull the lever for him.
Which they have slowly been doing over the past several weeks, as Romney's solid debate performances, stronger ground game efforts within the state and his positive, forward looking economic agenda is resonating with an very dissatisfied electorate, but he still has more work to be done there - and hopefully his imminent speech on turning America's economy around can help towards sealing the deal with fence sitters late in the game.
However, honestly, I don't believe the "undecided" voter will decide this election, but rather partisan turnout among the faithful in both camps will sway these two-three point margin of error swing states for one side or the other in eleven days. Which is why it's so crucial to monitor the Romney momentum vs. Obama machine battle play out, as it will likely lead to our eventual victor, and next President of the United States.
Either way, this is the state to watch over the next two weeks as both campaigns work furiously to get out their own vote while attempting to sway the still undecideds with a barrage of personal visits, advertisements and thousands of hours of thankless groundwork my faceless supporters in the final stretch.
What say you?