Sunday, March 25, 2012

Santorum Cant Win

The big news on the presidential trail today is Rick Santorum's big win in Louisiana yesterday over Romney and Gingrich, however, with the delegates being split between the two leading candidates, Santorum's chances of clinching the nomination are now almost 100% impossible.

With his current delegate count standing at 273, or almost 300 less then Romney's massive total, he would have to win around 880 delegates, or 70% of delegates still remaining, in the next two-dozen contests to win the nomination before any convention is held. And keep in mind that window keeps getting smaller and smaller.

Romney is favored to win seven of the next eight states that vote, which will award 322 delegates. However, most of these contests are winner-take-all. If Santorum fails to perform well in Romney territory, he will approach the statistical death of his campaign rapidly, and people are unlikely to invest time and money in someone who can't literally win.

Santorum should read the writing on the wall and step aside, allowing Romney to clinch without having to do so on the last contest in Utah, and getting our party a solid headstart against Obama.

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