Jon Tester, a farmer from Montana, very narrowly won that state's Senate contest in 2006 against long time incumbent Republican Conrad Burns. Tester played up his blue-collar background, even using fingers lost in a farming accident as an endearing tool. In the end, Tester squeaked by by less than 3,000 votes in the Democratic wave year.
Now his re-election bid appears to be in some trouble. Tester is still not terribly popular in the state, and faces a tough re-election challenge from the GOP.
Tester's potential opponent is Denny Rehberg, the sole representative in Congress from the state. Rehberg also ran for Senate in 1996 against Max Baucus, coming up short.
Now Tester is behind Rehberg in any potential challenge next year. This comes as Barack Obama came within two points of winning the state in 2008. This comes from PPP, which tends to be more friendly to the Democrats.
Rehberg: 47%
Tester: 45%
Other/don't know: 8%
Tester is below 50%, which is a difficult situation for an incumbent to be in. While he may gain some headwinds by running during a presidential race, there is a lot of anti-big government sentiment in the state.
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