Ominous Poll Numbers Confront Obama in Pennsylvania

 In many ways, Pennsylvania is a good model of the country, demographically. It has a liberal western part in Pittsburgh and eastern portion in Philadelphia, while the rest is basically rural Republican blue-collar country. Even further, its election results nearly mirror those going on in the rest of the country.

Let's take a look at the last three major races:

2008

Obama (D): 54% (53% nationally)
McCain (R): 44% (46% nationally)

2004

2004

 

Kerry (D): 51% (48% nationally)
Bush (R):  48% (51% nationally)



2000
Gore (D): 51% (48% nationally)

Bush (R):  46% (48% nationally)

Much of Obama's 54% in 2008 was made up after the financial crash of September. Without the crash-- he might have lost the state entirely. Obama won over 80% of the vote in Philadelphia, allowing him a healthy lead state-wide. However, let's fast forward to 2010:

Governor

Corbett (R): 55%
Onorato (D): 45%

Senate

Toomey (R): 51%
Sestak (D): 49%

In the Senate race, Sestak won only six of 63 counties, Onorato won four. Basically, with a lower turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and a healthy rural electorate-- Obama could lose next year.

This is where recent polling hurts Obama's chances. A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows his approval in the Keystone State cratering.

Job Performance
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 53%

Deserves Second Term
Yes: 42%
No: 52%

Against Generic Republican
Republican: 41%
Obama (D): 40%
Other/und: 19%

Of course, we're over a year out, but some of the internals of the poll are turning against the incumbent:

Independent voters say 56 - 37 percent that Obama does not deserve a second term and back an unnamed Republican challenger over the president by a smaller 36 - 29 percent margin. 

Democrats did poorly throughout the Rust Belt in 2010. What will happen next year is up in the air.


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