Thursday, March 24, 2011

Obama Faces Uphill Battle in Ohio

 Barack Obama's victory in Ohio in 2008 was no easy feat. Despite winning by 7% nationally, the Illinois Senator scored a 4.5% victory after George W. Bush carried the state by about 2%. Obama racked up votes along the coast of the Great Lakes in formerly industrialized cities while Senator John McCain won much of the inner parts of the state. Both McCain and Bush won the majority of counties and only because of the denseness of cities like Cleveland and Cincinnati were Kerry and Obama able to score respectable margins.

Now Obama faces some criticism of the people of Ohio in the latest polling. Despite the difficulties in the national economy and the overwhelming wave helping the Democrats, Obama never had a broad base of support in the state. Now it appears that his numbers have shrunk.
2008 Results
 According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Obama is not faring too greatly. His ratings are not terrible, but he faces the wrath of an electorate suffering heavily from the faltering economy and that oppose ObamaCare.

When asked a variety of questions, voters were almost evenly split on Obama and his Administration.

Does Obama deserve re-election?

Yes: 45%
No: 46%
Dk/unsure: 9%

Obama Approval Rating

Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 48%
Dk/unsure: 5%

Despite these numbers that do not fully support Obama, when placed against an unnamed Republican challenger, he still has some support.

Obama: 41%
Unnamed Republican: 34%
Other/und: 25%

Despite the early lead, Obama does not touch 50%, which is an important marker for an incumbent. Having the trust of less than half of the population-- especially when you received over 50% just two years ago is unsettling. Notice the massive amount of people undecided-- that Obama faces 6% less people wanting to vote for him than approve of his policies. Usually incumbent Presidents can count on more support than their initial approval ratings.

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