The most talked about issue in years has been swirling throughout 2010. Republicans are eager to gain back the majority that they lost in 2006 and Democrats have been stumbling almost every step of the way. President Obama's famous statement that the difference between 1994 and 2010 is that this year the Democrats "have me" appears to have fallen flat.
Furthermore the GOP is at or near historic highs in most polls. The most accurate poll, Rasmussen, has showed the GOP up for almost the entire year. Furthermore, the President's low approval ratings appear to be dragging the Democrats down further.
So how many seats will the GOP win? There's several different factors that appear to be in play.
1. The President's approval rating
If you take a look at the RealClearPolitics index of all of the major pollster's ratings of the President, it is not so pretty. As of today, it stands at 46.3% positive and 48.3% negative. That's actually one of the better ratings that he has received in weeks. If you look at some of the more accurate polls, like Rasmussen, you find that his approval rating is at 45% and disapproval at 54%. Not only that, but Gallup has his approval at a paltry 43%.
The President's approval rating is usually one of the keys in midterm elections. Reagan had low approval ratings (believe it or not) in November 1982, so the Democrats took back the Senate. Clinton had approval ratings around 43% in 1994 and the Republicans were able to take back both chambers of Congress. In 2002 President Bush's approval was in the mid-60s and the Republicans gained several seats in both houses. Seeing Obama's negatives near Clinton's would indicate a possible gain of 54 seats, such as in 1994. This would place the Republicans back in control of the House. The GOP also picked up eight Senate seats, leaving this number as a prescient precedent for this year.
2. Congressional approval rating
You can imagine, it's not great. But it was not great in 1994 either. This year the RealClearPolitics average has Congress at a 20.5% approval and a disapproval of 72.8%. These levels are toxic. Furthermore, a FoxNews poll has their approval at an even worse (if possible) 17%. Again, in 1994 the Democratic Congress had similar ratings, but there was one major catch. That year, the infamous HillaryCare proposal was eventually killed. In this case, the Congress actually passed the ObamaCare monstrosity. This will further push Congress's negatives down as many will believed that Democrats in Congress do not listen to their concerns.
3. Seat by Seat Ratings
There have been many looks into polling for all 435 House seats up for election along with those from the Senate. In every case, the Democrats are not doing well. Many of the projections have a wide range of how much the Republicans can expect to win back. Some of these show that the Republicans will win a range of 40-70 seats. Of course these numbers are helpful but are vague.
So we look at one of the prognosticators that has actually pinpointed the number of seats the GOP can hope to gain. Larry Sabato has gone through seat by seat to project the gains this year. He has a history of some success, so we can use these numbers with a little bit of respectability.
According to Sabato the Republicans will gain exactly 47 seats in the House and 8-9 seats in the Senate. This comes along with the 8 Governor's mansions they can hope to gain. These numbers are on the bottom end of the projections but may be the most accurate seat-by-seat analysis.
Conclusion
No matter what happens, this does not appear to be a good night for Democrats or President Obama. As for the GOP and conservative independents, make some popcorn and order a pizza.
My final projections:
House: 56 GOP gains
Senate: 8 GOP gains
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