Monday, November 01, 2010

Election 2010: The Five Senate Races to Watch

Out of the 37 United States Senate elections taking place tomorrow across the entire Nation, five races have really stood out to voters and "whiz kids" alike: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Washington. The Democrats currently control four of them, but by Thursday evening all five could be in Republican hands.

Alaska

Republicans Joe Miller (the Nominee) and Senator Lisa Murkowski (the Write-In) are running neck and neck in unpredictable Alaska polling, while Democrat Scott McAdams prepares for an evening of placing last. Senator Murkowski has recently enjoyed momentum, but after a local reporter was caught in a devious plot to tie Miller to any sex offender possible, the pendulum shifted.

Likely outcome: Miller wins with 40%.
Political impact: Insignificant.
Balance of power: Republicans retain.

Colorado

The appointed Democrat Senator Michael Bennet has never really been popular with the voters, not even in his own Party. Supporting the policies of Barack Obama further pushed his negatives up, and his potential Republican opponents down. Republican Ken Buck, who has been "deemed" an extremist for espousing Conservatism, has held the lead for three straight weeks by at least two points.

Likely outcome: Buck wins with 52%.
Political impact: Significant.
Balance of power: Republican pickup.

Illinois

Republican Congressman Mark Kirk and Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias are in the deadest of dead heats. Neither candidate has pulled away, both are unpopular, and the unhelpful addition of two Minor Party candidates is complicating everything else. However, Congressman Kirk has held the lead (2-3 points) for three weeks now.

Likely outcome: Kirk wins with 48%.
Political impact: Significant.
Balance of power: Republican pickup.

Nevada

Democrat Senator Harry Reid is down by four points according to all the recent polling data from three different organizations (Rasmussen, Marist, CNN). Reid is not only dreaded Nationwide, but the Nevada voters have had enough of him as well. Republican Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is poised to win the state by a few points.

Likely outcome: Angle wins with 52%.
Political impact: Significant.
Balance of power: Republican pickup.

Washington

Democrat Senator Patty Murray and Republican State Senator Dino Rossi have switched places so many times during this campaign, that it is hard to tell who's leading, and who's not at times. Rossi and Murray have both shared an one point lead over the past week, and even tied in one poll. But, I don't see Independents breaking to the Incumbent, so Rossi does have a tactical advantage heading into tomorrow.

Likely outcome: Rossi wins with 51%.
Political impact: Significant.
Balance of power: Republican pickup.

Any thoughts?

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