Thursday, October 07, 2010

What Happens with a 50/50 US Senate?

Republicans are going to win back the House of Representatives. Not one Conservative, not one Liberal, and not one Independent will dispute that well known fact. However, everyone is debating who will control the United States Senate next year as both Democrats, and Republicans, have a good chance of doing so.

There's just one problem with this. Everyone is debating whether Democrats will retain 51 seats, or Republicans will gain enough seats. When neither could happen, because polling data shows the US Senate breaking down along these lines (as of last night): 48 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 4 seats are tossups. It's possible that the Parties will split those four remaining "tossups".

Ladies and Gentlemen, we could see a United States Senate split 50/50. Which would create the exact opposite of a "lame duck Congress", as both sides would attempt to flip vulnerable members in a effort to gain control of the US Senate before Joe Biden has to cast the deciding, Democratic vote in January of 2011.

This situation last occurred in 2001, when Senate Democrats were able to gain four seats in the 2000 general election, which resulted in a 50/50 split. Al Gore, then still the Vice-President, gave Democrats control of the Senate for 17 days, until Richard Cheney, after being sworn in as Vice-President, gave Republicans control for five months, until Senator Jim Jeffords joined the Democrats on the sixth of June.

So what would happen if Senate Democrats, and Republicans are divided on November third? I am guessing that Democrats would go to Senators Collins, and Snowe in an attempt to flip either of them, while Republicans would go to Senators Lieberman, and Nelson for the same reason. But, I don't believe that any of the aforementioned would flip from their current side.

The upcoming election could just be the start of things to come.

2 comments:

  1. Come on, get with the program... where's your Tierney article?!?!! ;)

    Here's an interesting one for you if you don't mind.

    HR 4411 Congressman John Tierney's Smoking Gun

    Best regards friend

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is quite an interesting article, Mr. K.

    ReplyDelete