Real Clear Politics has a feature which calculates the polling data from across the country and places the numbers as final results-- thus even if someone is .04% above their opponent RCP will place this down for this candidate despite the small difference.
And looking at the numbers, it's starting to look good for Republicans. This comes despite the troubles of Carly Fiorina in California and Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.
Sharron Angle in Nevada and John Raese in West Virginia have both moved into the lead in their respective races-- and they appear to be breaking away from the Democrats. So now we have the Senate as a whole move to an even 50-50. Of course, if this is the result, the Dems will retain control anyway due to Joe Biden being the tie-breaking vote in the Senate. However, it will push moderate Democrats like Joe Lieberman closer towards the GOP even if he does not join the party directly.
According to the RCP average they are seeing Republican wins in:
- West Virginia, Kentucky, Nevada, Indiana, Illinois, Colorado, and Arkansas
And Democratic wins in:
Delaware and California.
Couple this with the fact that the GOP is within striking distance in New York-- yes, New York and Connecticut, it becomes clearer that the Democrats' attempts to 'rally the base' are either simply delayed or just not working.
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And New York is still in play. I am very interested in the next round of polling. Any idea when we will see some?
ReplyDeleteJust don't get overconfident and be vigilant. I blogged today about likely October surprise routes:
ReplyDeletehttp://colorfulconservative.blogspot.com/2010/10/dems-hunt-for-october-surprise-gay.html
Knowing what the Dems pulled in 2006, the last midterm voting cycle, we should be ready for their usual tricks: gays, race cards, scandals, etc.
"October Surprises" cut both ways, tho'.
ReplyDeletehttp://notanothernewenglandsportsblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/blue-state-graft-watch-bay-state.html