Interview with Unlikely Voter

Pundit Press is proud to present its eleventh interview in our ongoing series. This time we are interviewing Neil, the editor of Unlikely Voter. The site is where you can find up to date polling data. The site is also the home of the Swingometer, which is an excellent way of seeing how much shifts in national mood and voting patterns can affect the 2012 race and Congressional races.

> 1. When and why did you start Unlikely Voter?

Last year I began to grow frustrated with what I saw as a never ending cycle of bad poll analysis online and in the other media.  Particularly on the right there was nobody I knew of stepping up to do what Nate Silver did for the left, and try to rationalize what previously was largely the domain of pundits relying on conventional wisdom.  I saw a niche there, and wanted to fill it: a site that tries to be unbiased in poll analysis, neutral when possible but with the slant opposite of Silver's when I slip up.

Nate Silver's work, as well as that on Real Clear Politics, were my key influences in deciding how I was going to analyze polls and races myself.  If I do well it's because I learned from those before me.

> 2. How did you come up with the Swingometer?

I thought of it by watching on the BBC Internet stream the Westminster election returns this year.  They have about two hundred more seats in the House of Commons than we have in the House of Representatives, but the need to analyze hundreds of districts is the same.  The BBC has had its Swingometer for decades, and while it's not perfectly predictive, particularly due to their relatively large third parties, but it's not bad.

So I found the raw data on the 2008 results and a week later, my Swingometer was born.

> 3. Has President Obama been better or worse than you expected?

I think we usually measure Presidents by their ability to get their policies enacted, and then by the success of those policies.  I never expected his policies to do well, as I disagree with their wisdom from the start, but he's been far less able to pass his agenda than I expected, particularly when he had 60 Senate votes.  In that, he's done far worse than I expected.

> 4. What's your favorite part about running your site?

It's something I never expected: Just by following the polling in so many races, I have become familiar with so many candidates in so many states, knowing their names, faces, and chances of winning right off the top of my head.

So much of it is admittedly trivia, but it leaves me feeling more engaged in this election than I was in any election before.

> 5. Do you think the GOP has a shot in the Governor and Senate races?

I think the RGA has an excellent chance of meeting or exceeding its goal of having 30 Republican Governors after this cycle.  Republicans running for Senate are doing remarkably well even in hostile territory like Illinois and California, but the candidates for Governor are running ahead of the Senate candidates!

At this point I think that the NRSC though has much less chance of winning a Republican Senate majority, though.  They do start in the hole, with only 23 seats not up, versus 40 for the Democrats.  But still, failures to recruit in races like the New York regular election against Chuck Schumer are turning out to be wasted opportunities.  Illinois may turn out similarly as a failure to vet the favored Republican has turned that into a very tight race.

Republicans need polling gains in a number of states before I can say a Republican Senate majority is probable.

> 6. Where do you see the Tea Party in two years?

The TEA party is already a loose, diverse movement, but I think the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination process will tear it apart even more, as different national organizations align with different candidates, local groups break off their own ways, and members of all of the above storm out in favor of their own candidates.

I also expect that Republicans taking at least one House of the Congress will help steer the government's fiscal policies in a sounder direction, especially with all the candidates nominated and elected with strong TEA party influence.  As a result, I expect the economy to get better by 2012, and so the raw anger and dissatisfaction helping drive the TEA party will be lessened.

So I expect a weaker TEA party with more infighting by 2012, for better or for worse.

> 7. Anything else you would like to add?

I'd like to thank you and your readers for giving me your time and your visits to UnlikelyVoter.com.  I try to stay humble about what I do over there.  I do my best, but I know I can always do better. Suggestions for improvement are always welcome.


http://unlikelyvoter.com/


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